PUBLICATIONS

 

SELECTED WORKING PAPERS

(1)The Labour Market Effect of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty (Job Market Paper)

   Abstract: This study examines the effect of fiscal policy uncertainty (FPU) on job searches and labour demand in the United States. We first develop search-based job search indices and find that increased FPU leads to lower job search levels. At the same time, when FPU rises, labour demand is also reduced. The effect of FPU varies across states and is also affected by the prevailing monetary policy stance and level of government debt. Industry compositions can explain cross-state variations. Finally, FPU reduces matching efficiency in labour markets. These results are robust to alternative specifications, consideration of the effect of risk on uncertainty, and the endogeneity problem.

Presentation: CEC 5th Hangzhou seminar; CEC Sailing Plan Workshop; Third Conference on Law and Macroeconomics (Virtual); University of Reading seminar

(2)Public News and Market Liquidity: Evidence from the CDS Market (joint with Xinjie Wang, Shanxiang Yang, Jinfan Zhang, and Zhaodong (Ken) Zhong)

  Abstract: This paper examines the effects of public news releases on the market liquidity in one of the most important OTC derivative markets—the CDS market. We document that, at the time of news releases, the bid-ask spread is wider, the number of quotes is larger, and the number of dealers is greater. Earnings announcements have particularly strong effects on liquidity while credit ratings have no significant effects. Moreover, the bid-ask spread only increases on news release days and reverts to normal levels several days after news releases. Finally, the effect of news on liquidity is stronger for negative, fundamental, and unscheduled news, and is more pronounced among firms with higher information asymmetry. Our findings are consistent with models of rational trade in Kim and Verrecchia (1994).

Presentation: 2020 American Accounting Association (AAA) annual meeting; 1st Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Area Research Forum on Business; the 8th International Conference on Futures and Other Derivatives; the 5th International Conference on Fintech Development; the Accounting and Business Research(ABR) and China Journal of Accounting Research(CJAR) Joint Conference

(3)Lobbying activity over business cycles

  Abstract: This study investigates how firms’ lobbying activities change over business cycles. Using data from the Center for Responsive Politics, we show that firms are more likely to participate in and incur greater expenditure on lobbying in times of recessions. Furthermore, non-lobbying firms are more likely to start lobbying during recessions. Wefurtherexplore two channels for this result: financial constraints and executive’s motivation. Because recession causes the external financing environment to deteriorate, we show that firms facing more constraints because of recessions lobby more. Moreover, executives have stronger motivation to lobby during recessions because doing so helps them to obtain more personal compensation.

Presentation: PhD-EVS seminar; 2021 Scottish Economic Society Annual Conference (Virtual, scheduled); 2021 Financial Markets and Corporate Governance Conference (FMCG) (Virtual, scheduled); EFMA (scheduled); 2021 Africa Meeting of the Econometric Society (scheduled)

© 2020 by Wei-Fong Pan. 

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